Bitcoin: The August Target Is Reached, the Next Trend Turn Falls on 8 October

The target from our August analysis has been reached: Bitcoin has tested $86,977. Now price meets the descending line, and the next trend turn falls on 8 October.

The 19 August time window was right, the direction was the other one

In the analysis of 17 August a bearish path was in the foreground: the arc was broken and $51,468 lay open. Alongside it, one chart showed the short-term recovery, with a target at $86,977.

Price chose the recovery. Exactly at the vertical time marker of 19 August the rise begins on the chart, from around $63,400 at the time of the analysis up to $87,370. That is about 38%.

What did not happen is the test at $51,468 and the correction in the window up to 10 September. The bearish scenario therefore did not play out, and the high-volatility zone remains untested. We had drawn both paths, and price took one of them.

The six-hour chart shows it: the red arrow pointing down is still drawn in from 19 August. It did not convince the price.

The upper edge of the arc has stopped the price several times

The zoom shows what happened: price ran up to the upper edge of the arc at $86,977, was rejected there and repeated the attempt. The high is $87,370, just above it.

Below, the yellow line at $82,534 marks the sideways range. As long as price stays above it, this is a pause beneath the target and not a reversal.

On 8 October the new time marker meets the descending line exactly

The new structure is a fan centred on 8 October, at the level of the quadrant boundary from August. Price runs along the upper edge of the arc; the green ray is the descending line that comes down across the 2025 high.

Price and time therefore meet at the same spot: price sits on the descending line, and the time marker crosses it there as well. That is why we are writing this analysis now and not in a week.

Bullish: above the descending line, $93,590 comes first

If the breakout above the green descending line succeeds, the next target is the rising blue line at $93,590. It sits about $8,000 above the price.

Further up the chart draws a staircase: first $120,803, then a pullback to $102,784, and then the next long advance. The pullback is part of the path and not a break in it.

Condition for the whole path: price closes above the descending line and stays there. If it falls back below $82,534, the bullish scenario is done.

Bearish: if the descending line is not overcome, $74,241 is the next level

If price is rejected at the descending line, the chart points down to $74,241. There the path meets the rising red curve, and the level sits midway between the two supports of the trend indicator.

Behind it comes $52,577. The way there runs along the blue arc coming down from the upper left.

The bearish scenario is void as soon as price closes above $87,370 and confirms the descending line from above.

On the weekly chart both paths reach into 2027

The weekly chart sets three time markers: 5 October 2026, 5 April 2027 and 20 September 2027. To the upside the green arrow points to $247,998, timed at 5 April 2027.

To the downside the arrows run through $52,577, a brief recovery and finally to $22,641, timed at 20 September 2027.

Both levels are far away. They show where the geometry leads if one of the two paths is followed through, and are not a forecast for the coming weeks.

That the chart draws both paths does not mean both are equally likely. It only means that the decision is made at the descending line.

The new trend indicator sorts the situation into zones

Alongside comes the new trend indicator from the Trading Desk, GannSonar Trendlage. It colours the candles by trend state and lays zones and lines over them, on the daily chart for example a resistance at $94,469 and two supports at $78,916 and $71,505.

That fits the lines: the resistance sits only about $880 above the $93,590 level, and the bearish level at $74,241 lies between the two supports. Two routes, the same areas.

On the weekly chart price stands in the decision zone, which runs from $27,260 to $92,578. Above it the upside area begins, and from $125,237 the extreme area up to $157,897. As long as price stays below $92,578, nothing is decided on a weekly basis.

SonarOracle expects a pullback to $79,126 first

SonarOracle is our new tool in the free analysis area. On a weekly basis it shows where price is heading and with what probability: lines with a percentage, a flagged pullback and a cloud for the likely path.

At the moment it flags a pullback to $79,126 with an 87% probability within four weeks. The lines carry their own probability: $79,126 99%, $70,788 70% and $95,802 28%.

To the upside it names $89,824 and $104,501 as strong boundaries. The check marks on the candles mark levels that SonarOracle flagged in the past and that price then reached.

A pullback to $79,126 fits both scenarios: bullish as a pullback before the next run, bearish as the first leg towards $74,241. What matters is not the pullback but what price does afterwards.

And a probability is not a promise: 87% means it does not happen in roughly one case in eight.

Conclusion

Price stands on the descending line, and on 8 October time stands beside it. How price behaves there decides which path applies.

Free vs. Pro

The free tier shows the higher-order structure: arcs, quadrants, time windows, plus SonarOracle on the weekly chart. The trend indicator GannSonar Trendlage runs in the Trading Desk, where SonarOracle also shows all time frames down to 5 minutes.

In the Pro channel the signals run live, with entry, invalidation and target, and can be executed automatically instead of waiting for a time marker.

The free tier gives you the map. The Pro channel gives you the coordinates.

Risk notice: This analysis is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. SonarSignal provides market structure and signal intelligence, not guaranteed outcomes.