Bitcoin After the Arc Break: The Time Window Opens on 19 August

The bearish scenario from the June analysis has played out. The arc is broken, and the time window opens the day after tomorrow.

What we wrote in June

The analysis of 23 June put it like this: if the arc breaks, $57,500 moves into focus first, and then the deeper Gann time window around 19 August at roughly $51,500. That is exactly what happened — and in that order.

The arc gave way on 1 August

Before it did, the support delivered once more: from around $57,500 price ran up to $66,800. The hoped-for test of $87,000 never came. What stopped the run was the quadrant boundary at $66,878 — less than eighty dollars above the high.

The first break of the arc dates to 1 August, the retest from below ran until 10 August. Since then Bitcoin has traded below the line that carried it for months, at around $63,400 at the time of writing.

The path to the inner HV zone is open

With the support gone, nothing sits in between any more. The next target is the inner high-volatility zone at $51,468 — a level that was already in the June analysis. What is new is not the number, it is the clear path to it.

And 19 August is not an arbitrary date: it holds the higher-order trend turn and the start of the new 2.5-year cycle. The correction window therefore runs from 19 August to 10 September.

What the HV zone answers — and what it does not

Only once the zone has been tested can anyone say what this cycle becomes. Until then, every statement about 2028 is a guess with a chart attached. The test itself is the information, not the road towards it.

Bearish: the long wave into 2028

If no reaction comes in the high-volatility zone, the move continues as a long sell-off wave into 2028. The new cycle would then not be a turning point but the starting gun for the next leg down.

Bullish: stabilisation instead of continuation

If an impulse does come, that is enough for at least a sideways stabilisation. Not a reversal upwards, but a floor you can work on. This scenario is void the moment the area around $51,468 is left to the downside without resistance.

Bitcoin without a buy signal, Ethereum with one

The long-term indicator shows no new buy signal for Bitcoin. As long as that holds, every recovery on the chart is a move without confirmation.

For Ethereum there is one. Two markets that usually move largely in step are diverging here — that is rare, and worth keeping an eye on.

Conclusion

The June analysis is done. What matters now are two dates and one level: 19 August, 10 September and 51,468.

Free vs. Pro

The free tier shows the higher-order structure: arcs, quadrants, time windows.

In the Pro channel the signals from Deep Wave run live, with entry, invalidation and target — and they can be executed automatically, instead of you sitting up at night waiting for a time window.

The free tier gives you the map. The Pro channel gives you the coordinates.

Risk notice: This analysis is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. SonarSignal provides market structure and signal intelligence, not guaranteed outcomes.